GCAM Mongolia Region Setup

Overview

Under this initiative, our organization is actively spearheading a long-term research project to localize the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)—a premier global tool for evaluating the dynamics between climate change, economics, energy systems, and agriculture—specifically for Mongolia. By incorporating localized, empirical data and national statistics, we are developing a robust foundation to simulate Mongolia's future developmental trajectories, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and energy transition path, ensuring continuous refinements to the model.

What we set out to do

• To calibrate the model to Mongolia's unique socioeconomic and environmental context and ensure iterative updates, we actively compile and process the following core Inputs:
• Population: Future projections, demographic shifts, and urbanization trends across Mongolia.
• Labor Participation: Labor market dynamics, employment rates, and sectoral workforce distribution.
• Labor Productivity Growth: Sector-specific productivity changes and long-term GDP growth projections.
• Energy Technology Assumptions: Cost, efficiency, deployment potential, and capacity constraints for both renewable and conventional energy technologies.
• Agricultural and Land Use Data: Historical and projected changes in pastureland, cropland, forestry, and livestock population dynamics.

What we did

• Our research team is progressively executing the following core tasks to continuously develop and refine the model:
• Data Harmonization & Curation: Standardizing and converting national statistical data into GCAM-compliant formats to maintain and enrich a comprehensive, long-term database.
• Scenario Development: Modeling and running simulations for various development pathways, climate mitigation strategies, and carbon neutrality goals (Net-Zero scenarios).
• Multisectoral Nexus Analysis: Conducting ongoing assessments of the interdependencies between energy, economy, and land use to evaluate how policies in one sector impact others.

Outcomes

• Through this ongoing research, the following long-term outputs are being developed for Mongolia, providing a foundational baseline and recommendations for policymakers to guide strategic decision-making.